BTC/USDlive
$76,850+1.46%
24h high77,17924h low75,06590d range76%
first-hand market data
Numbers first.
Opinions after.
I pull the data myself, publish the window and the source, and post the position before the outcome is known. When one loses, that post goes up too.
ETH/USDlive
$2,473+3.45%
24h high2,48424h low2,36990d range92%
SOL/USDlive
$101.58+4.55%
24h high101.8024h low96.0990d range81%
BNB/USDlive
$729.53+2.34%
24h high732.5424h low708.8890d range79%
Market
liveBTC$76,850+0.85% 24h
Total cap$2.64TBTC 58.2% dominance
24h volume$3.1Btop 16 pairs, Binance spot
Advancing15/16broad strength
From ATH-38.4%high $124,659
Halving573d82,557 blocks
50Neutral
extreme fearfearneutralgreedextreme greed
0.483accumulate
bottomaccumulatewait
1.17xof MA200W
undermidstretched
Market regime
six measures, normalised- sentiment50
- ahr9990.483
- mayer1.092
- 200w mult1.17x
- from ath-38%
- volatility49%
composite 44/100 · higher is hotter
Stablecoins by chain
the write-up →$304.2Ball chains
- Ethereum48.1%
- Tron30.9%
- Solana5.0%
- BSC4.5%
- Hyperliquid L12.2%
- Base1.6%
- other2.7%
Ethereum and Tron hold 79% of every stablecoin in existence. Source DefiLlama, 2026-09-17.
Funding across venues
what it pays →spread—
| Venue | Rate | Annualised | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| loading… | ||||
Positive means longs pay shorts. Compare the annualised column, not the raw rate — Hyperliquid settles hourly and the rest every eight hours, so the same headline number is worth eight times as much there. Spread is the gap between the best and worst venue on an annualised basis, before fees and before the margin you'd need on both legs.
Open interest across venues
live · normalised to coinstotal—
| Venue | Open interest | Notional | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| loading… | |||
Open interest is the number of contracts still open — size, not activity. Rising OI with rising price means new money is coming in long; rising OI into a falling price means shorts are building; a sharp drop in OI without much price movement is positions being closed, which is what a liquidation cascade looks like after the fact. Every venue publishes this in its own unit — coins, contracts, or notional — so all of it is normalised to coins here and valued at one common mark, otherwise the comparison measures basis instead of size.
What options are pricing
Deribit · BTCFront IV24.9%0.6d to expiry
Term slope+11.0contango vs 27NOV26
Put / call OI0.56book leans calls
Open interest440,303BTC across live strikes
33.9
49.4
| Expiry | Days | IV | OI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25SEP26 | 8 | 29.9% | 188,916 |
| 25DEC26 | 99 | 36.7% | 115,881 |
| 30OCT26 | 43 | 33.4% | 49,292 |
| 18SEP26 | <1 | 24.9% | 22,501 |
| 27NOV26 | 71 | 35.9% | 7,881 |
| 2OCT26 | 15 | 31.3% | 7,809 |
Implied vol is what the option market charges for the next move, annualised. A curve that slopes up means the market sees no near-term event and is charging more for time; one that inverts means something is expected soon and the front is bid. DVOL's percentile is the honest context for the level — 33.9 means nothing until you know it sits at the 0th percentile of the last 120 days. Source Deribit, which is where most of the crypto options book lives.
Price
daily close · hover for detailBTCO—H—L—C——VOL—
US spot ETF tape
dollar volume · not flowcomplex turnover, last session$3.71B-15% vs 20-day average
daily $ volume20-day average
| Fund | Last | 1d | 3m | $ vol | vs 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBITBTC | $43.04 | -0.16% | +17.92% | $2.12B | 0.75x |
| ETHAETH | $18.15 | -0.27% | +38.97% | $970M | 0.99x |
| FBTCBTC | $66.10 | -0.15% | +17.99% | $296M | 0.97x |
| ARKBBTC | $25.16 | -0.28% | +17.79% | $116M | 2.02x |
| GBTCBTC | $58.75 | -0.15% | +17.59% | $107M | 0.74x |
| FETHETH | $23.94 | -0.46% | +38.62% | $57M | 0.83x |
| BITBBTC | $41.24 | -0.19% | +17.93% | $46M | 0.71x |
This is the tape, not the flow. Volume counts every share that changed hands; creations and redemptions — the number headlines quote as "ETFs bought $X" — come from a paid dataset and are deliberately absent rather than guessed at from price and volume. What the tape does tell you is participation: the vs 20d column above 1.00x means a fund traded heavier than its own recent norm. Source Nasdaq, close of 09-16.
News
full log →today · Sep 17
09-17fedFed hikes to 4%, first increase since July 20231.97%decision hour range-0.18%hour close+0.10%6h later
Warsh's first decision as chair, delivered unanimously, with 4.00–4.25% projected through 2027.
Decision hour ranged 1.97% on BTCUSDT against a 0.39% median over the prior 1,000 hours — top 1.3% of the sample — and closed −0.18%. Six hours later price was +0.10% from the decision open.
full write-up →09-17fedWarsh: no need to harm the labour market
"I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets to achieve our objective."
No chair has ever said the opposite, so the line carries no policy information on its own.
09-17macroDollar clears 156 yen, BOJ decides Friday300bpUS-Japan gap1.25%expected BOJ
US at 3.75–4% against Japan's 1% puts the policy gap near 300bp. Reuters has 97% of economists expecting a hike to 1.25%, which would be Japan's highest in 31 years.
The August 2024 carry unwind needed the Fed pricing cuts at the same time. That half is missing here — the Fed just moved the other way.
09-17macroJapan's 10-year touches 2.994%-0.287%2016 low328bpround trip
Highest since 1996. The 2016 low on the same series was −0.287%.
A 328bp round trip on the instrument that funds the world's largest carry trade.
09-17policyEmmer: CLARITY only delayed until after the midterms
House Majority Whip on the failed Senate cloture vote.
Bills die with the Congress. After the midterms this one restarts from introduction, which is a rewrite rather than a resumption.
09-17marketBinance opens Capital Connect to qualified individualslisted onlysurvivorship
Its marketplace for allocating to professional trading strategies, previously businesses only.
Listings on any such venue are the strategies still running. The ones that blew up are not on the page.
09-17defiAave plans an RWA hub on Avalanche$259MAave on AVAX$1.39BAVAX stablecoins
Institutions post tokenised financial assets as collateral to borrow stablecoins, with Tether's USA₮ named as a dollar liquidity source.
Aave V3's entire Avalanche market is $259M, 1.54% of its $16.8B. Avalanche holds $1.39B of stablecoins, 0.46% of all chains. Collateral ports; liquidity does not.
full write-up →09-17protocolZcash holders vote to cut block times 75s → 25s99.9%in favour2019precedent
99.9% in favour, with 97% backing a delay of the Network Sustainability Mechanism to February 2031.
Blossom did the same thing in 2019, 150s to 75s with the block reward cut to match. Same playbook, not a new issuance regime.
09-17macroUS mortgage purchase applications back to 1995 levels+75Mpopulation since 1995
MBA purchase index, per re:venture.
Same index, 75 million more Americans than in 1995.
Wed, Sep 16
09-16policyCLARITY Act cloture fails 46–43-3.38%BTC-4.75%ETH-1.42%ETH/BTC
Short of the 60 needed, which ends market-structure legislation for this Congress.
BTC −3.38%, ETH −4.75%, ETH/BTC −1.42%, US 10-year 4.84% → 5.00%. BTC's beta to a −1.66% NASDAQ day accounts for the whole move; the bill's actual footprint is the 1.42% ETH lost relative to BTC, and (1−3.38%)×(1−1.42%) reconciles to ETH's print exactly.
full write-up →Market board
monthly heatmap & more →| Coin | Price | 24h | USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 76,850 | +1.46% | $1.17B |
| ETH | 2,473 | +3.45% | $0.86B |
| SOL | 101.58 | +4.55% | $0.26B |
| XRP | 1.31 | +3.24% | $0.24B |
| NEAR | 3.00 | +21.52% | $0.17B |
| BNB | 729.53 | +2.34% | $0.11B |
| DOGE | 0.0822 | +3.80% | $0.06B |
| SUI | 0.7352 | +7.14% | $0.05B |
| ADA | 0.2029 | +5.62% | $0.03B |
| LINK | 11.39 | +6.24% | $0.02B |
| AVAX | 7.64 | +5.46% | $0.02B |
| TRX | 0.3341 | -0.59% | $0.02B |
| LTC | 53.75 | +6.25% | $0.02B |
| DOT | 1.06 | +8.27% | $0.01B |
| TON | 1.60 | +0.95% | $0.01B |
| APT | 0.5840 | +10.19% | $0.01B |
Latest
all research →0.29x vs 7.90xcovered call vs hold, 7 years
Covered calls on Bitcoin sell the only part that pays
Seven years of Binance daily bars, a monthly covered call simulated three ways. Buy and hold returns 7.90x. The friendliest version of the option strategy returns 0.29x.
79%Ethereum + Tron share of all stablecoin float
Stablecoins are basically two chains
Ethereum and Tron hold 79% of all stablecoin float. Everything else, including the chains with the loudest conference slides, is fighting over a fifth of it.
5 yearshow long the relief lasts before it expires
What the tokenized stock exemption takes back
The SEC granted onchain equity venues a five-year pass on exchange registration. Read the conditions and the pass is a definition: a tokenized share has to be a share.
30.6% → 2.82%annualized funding carry, 2021 vs 2026
Funding rate carry is mostly gone
Seven years of Binance BTCUSDT funding, every one of the 7,689 settlements. The trade paid 30.6% in 2021 and 2.82% in 2026.
49% vs 57%five-day bounce rate, FOMC vs ordinary
The FOMC reversal is a drop thing, not a Fed thing
93 scheduled decisions since 2015 against 3,452 days with no Fed meeting. Bitcoin bounces less after FOMC drops than after ordinary ones.