10 pieces
Every post here is a measurement, not a take. The source API and the exact window are named at the bottom of each one. If you pull the same data and get something else, I want to hear about it.
The odds each one comes back to the ceiling it just cleared, reaches its 100-week average, and closes above either, rerun on today price.
Bitcoin reaches the top of its range in 81% of simulated weeks and closes above it in 34%. Three coins, three boxes, and the odds of leaving them, from a bootstrap rather than an arrow.
Seven days ago I posted three conditions instead of a forecast. Both edges of the box produced a daily close outside it, and not one target printed. The box was two ATRs wide.
History says a 28% gain from here happens inside 98 days about 42% of the time. Deribit prices that same move at 7.8%. The gap is the trade.
Seven years of Binance daily bars, a monthly covered call simulated three ways. Buy and hold returns 7.90x. The friendliest version of the option strategy returns 0.29x.
Ethereum and Tron hold 79% of all stablecoin float. Everything else, including the chains with the loudest conference slides, is fighting over a fifth of it.
The SEC granted onchain equity venues a five-year pass on exchange registration. Read the conditions and the pass is a definition: a tokenized share has to be a share.
Seven years of Binance BTCUSDT funding, every one of the 7,689 settlements. The trade paid 30.6% in 2021 and 2.82% in 2026.
93 scheduled decisions since 2015 against 3,452 days with no Fed meeting. Bitcoin bounces less after FOMC drops than after ordinary ones.
Bitcoin fell 3.38% the night cloture failed. Almost none of it was the bill. The arithmetic closes to the decimal.