kept by hand since 2026-09-15
News
Not a news feed. Every entry was read off a primary source, and where it claims a market reaction that number was measured against exchange data with the window named. If an event moved nothing, it says so.
Logged
Read off a primary source, market reaction measured — what this site is for.
09-17fedFed hikes to 4%, first increase since July 20231.97%decision hour range-0.18%hour close+0.10%6h later
Warsh's first decision as chair, delivered unanimously, with 4.00–4.25% projected through 2027.
Decision hour ranged 1.97% on BTCUSDT against a 0.39% median over the prior 1,000 hours — top 1.3% of the sample — and closed −0.18%. Six hours later price was +0.10% from the decision open.
full write-up →09-17fedWarsh: no need to harm the labour market
"I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets to achieve our objective."
No chair has ever said the opposite, so the line carries no policy information on its own.
09-17macroDollar clears 156 yen, BOJ decides Friday300bpUS-Japan gap1.25%expected BOJ
US at 3.75–4% against Japan's 1% puts the policy gap near 300bp. Reuters has 97% of economists expecting a hike to 1.25%, which would be Japan's highest in 31 years.
The August 2024 carry unwind needed the Fed pricing cuts at the same time. That half is missing here — the Fed just moved the other way.
09-17macroJapan's 10-year touches 2.994%-0.287%2016 low328bpround trip
Highest since 1996. The 2016 low on the same series was −0.287%.
A 328bp round trip on the instrument that funds the world's largest carry trade.
09-17policyEmmer: CLARITY only delayed until after the midterms
House Majority Whip on the failed Senate cloture vote.
Bills die with the Congress. After the midterms this one restarts from introduction, which is a rewrite rather than a resumption.
09-17marketBinance opens Capital Connect to qualified individualslisted onlysurvivorship
Its marketplace for allocating to professional trading strategies, previously businesses only.
Listings on any such venue are the strategies still running. The ones that blew up are not on the page.
09-17defiAave plans an RWA hub on Avalanche$259MAave on AVAX$1.39BAVAX stablecoins
Institutions post tokenised financial assets as collateral to borrow stablecoins, with Tether's USA₮ named as a dollar liquidity source.
Aave V3's entire Avalanche market is $259M, 1.54% of its $16.8B. Avalanche holds $1.39B of stablecoins, 0.46% of all chains. Collateral ports; liquidity does not.
full write-up →09-17protocolZcash holders vote to cut block times 75s → 25s99.9%in favour2019precedent
99.9% in favour, with 97% backing a delay of the Network Sustainability Mechanism to February 2031.
Blossom did the same thing in 2019, 150s to 75s with the block reward cut to match. Same playbook, not a new issuance regime.
09-17macroUS mortgage purchase applications back to 1995 levels+75Mpopulation since 1995
MBA purchase index, per re:venture.
Same index, 75 million more Americans than in 1995.
09-16policyCLARITY Act cloture fails 46–43-3.38%BTC-4.75%ETH-1.42%ETH/BTC
Short of the 60 needed, which ends market-structure legislation for this Congress.
BTC −3.38%, ETH −4.75%, ETH/BTC −1.42%, US 10-year 4.84% → 5.00%. BTC's beta to a −1.66% NASDAQ day accounts for the whole move; the bill's actual footprint is the 1.42% ETH lost relative to BTC, and (1−3.38%)×(1−1.42%) reconciles to ETH's print exactly.
full write-up →11-26aheadDifficulty retarget
Estimated +21.9%, which moves every miner's shutdown price by the same amount in the opposite direction.
12-25aheadQuarterly options expiry
Deribit settles the quarterlies 08:00 UTC on the last Friday. This is where the open interest sits, so it is the one date that reliably concentrates flow.
04-12aheadFourth halving, block 1,050,000
Subsidy drops to 1.5625 BTC. 74,088 blocks out, dated off ten minutes a block — the real date moves with hashrate.
Wire
Aggregated from Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Decrypt and The Block. Nobody checked what any of it did to the tape — that is the difference between this and the section above. 396 headlines on a rolling 7-day window.
Why it is short
Aggregated crypto headlines are free and worthless — a hundred outlets rewriting the same wire in a race to publish. What is missing from all of them is the second half: what the tape actually did. That takes pulling the bars around the event, so it goes at the speed one person can verify things, and the log starts the day I started keeping it rather than being backfilled from memory.